MODELING FUTURE EPIDEMIOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC BURDEN OF HIV IN BRAZIL: PROJECTION OF SUBSTANTIAL NEW INFECTIONS AND COSTS THROUGH TO 2034
Author(s)
Thomas M. Bendall, BSc, MBA, MSc1, Rafael Aguiar Maciel, MSc2, Magda Araujo, MSc2, Rob Blissett, Eng.D3, Johan Klint, PhD3, Jon Tosh, BA, MSc, PhD1, Melanie Schroeder, BSc, MSc1, Sarah-Jane Anderson, BA, MSc, PhD1, Jeremy Fraysse, MSc4, Julie Priest, MSPH4.
1ViiV Healthcare, London, United Kingdom, 2GSK, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 3Maple Health Group, New York, NY, USA, 4ViiV Healthcare, Durham, NC, USA.
1ViiV Healthcare, London, United Kingdom, 2GSK, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 3Maple Health Group, New York, NY, USA, 4ViiV Healthcare, Durham, NC, USA.
OBJECTIVES: Brazil has committed to the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets and to ending HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030, including a 90% reduction in HIV incidence. Despite substantial progress, new HIV acquisitions represent a significant public health and economic burden. To meet these targets further improvements in access, uptake, and engagement across the HIV care continuum may be needed. This analysis aimed to estimate, through modelling, the future trajectory of HIV incidence and associated economic burden of new HIV diagnoses in Brazil where HIV prevention, testing and care practices remain unchanged.
METHODS: We adapted a published compartmental dynamic HIV transmission model by calibrating to Brazilian surveillance data reported by the Ministério da Saúde. The model stratified the adult (15+) population by acquisition risk (accounting for current public health measures) and represented people with HIV across the care continuum. We projected incidence and prevalence between 2024 and 2034. Healthcare system and societal costs for new cases in this 10-year period were estimated; separately, lifetime costs for these new cases were calculated.
RESULTS: Targets for ending new HIV transmissions by 2030 are not projected to be met with annual new acquisitions >50,000, remaining above defined targets of <5,923 p.a. through 2034. Total costs (healthcare system and societal) between 2024 and 2034 for all new cases (n=513,669) were estimated to be R$ 42 billion. Lifetime costs for these new cases were projected to be R$ 1,755 billion (healthcare system: R$ 982 billion; societal: R$ 773 billion).
CONCLUSIONS: Substantial new HIV transmissions are projected in Brazil beyond 2030 targets without further improvements in HIV prevention and care, resulting in a considerable economic burden. Expanding access to differentiated prevention, diagnosis, and treatment approaches that meet the diverse needs of populations affected by HIV will be critical to achieving Brazil’s ambition of ending HIV/AIDS as a public health threat.
METHODS: We adapted a published compartmental dynamic HIV transmission model by calibrating to Brazilian surveillance data reported by the Ministério da Saúde. The model stratified the adult (15+) population by acquisition risk (accounting for current public health measures) and represented people with HIV across the care continuum. We projected incidence and prevalence between 2024 and 2034. Healthcare system and societal costs for new cases in this 10-year period were estimated; separately, lifetime costs for these new cases were calculated.
RESULTS: Targets for ending new HIV transmissions by 2030 are not projected to be met with annual new acquisitions >50,000, remaining above defined targets of <5,923 p.a. through 2034. Total costs (healthcare system and societal) between 2024 and 2034 for all new cases (n=513,669) were estimated to be R$ 42 billion. Lifetime costs for these new cases were projected to be R$ 1,755 billion (healthcare system: R$ 982 billion; societal: R$ 773 billion).
CONCLUSIONS: Substantial new HIV transmissions are projected in Brazil beyond 2030 targets without further improvements in HIV prevention and care, resulting in a considerable economic burden. Expanding access to differentiated prevention, diagnosis, and treatment approaches that meet the diverse needs of populations affected by HIV will be critical to achieving Brazil’s ambition of ending HIV/AIDS as a public health threat.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2026-11, ISPOR Europe 2026, Vienna, Austria
Value in Health, Volume 29, Issue 12S
Code
EPH13
Topic
Epidemiology & Public Health
Topic Subcategory
Public Health
Disease
Infectious Disease (non-vaccine), Reproductive & Sexual Health