THE POLICY CASE FOR PAEDIATRIC INFLUENZA VACCINATION STRATEGIES: LAIV MODELING ANALYSIS OF PUBLIC HEALTH IMPACT AND COST SAVINGS IN EUROPE
Author(s)
Fryderyk Wilczynski, PhD1, Luca Ricci Pacifici, MSc1, Katja Berg, PhD2, Lise Retat, PhD3, Klas Bergenheim, PhD4.
1Health Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd., Cardiff, United Kingdom, 2Global Pricing and Market Access, Infectious Disease, AstraZeneca, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 3Health Economics & Payer Evidence, Infectious Disease, AstraZeneca, Barcelona, Spain, 4Health Economics & Payer Evidence, Infectious Disease, AstraZeneca, Gothenburg, Sweden.
1Health Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd., Cardiff, United Kingdom, 2Global Pricing and Market Access, Infectious Disease, AstraZeneca, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 3Health Economics & Payer Evidence, Infectious Disease, AstraZeneca, Barcelona, Spain, 4Health Economics & Payer Evidence, Infectious Disease, AstraZeneca, Gothenburg, Sweden.
OBJECTIVES: Childhood vaccination with live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) is a cost-effective strategy for protecting children and reducing influenza-like illness across Europe. Vaccinating children can interrupt transmission across the broader population, thereby reducing infections across age groups. This study evaluated the epidemiological and economic impact of increasing paediatric LAIV vaccination (children aged 2-17 years) across five European markets.
METHODS: A compartmental dynamic transmission model simulated influenza circulation within a population over one year under current vaccination practices (inactivated influenza vaccine only; reference case). A linked decision tree translated symptomatic infections into clinical outcomes, healthcare resource use, and mortality. Scenarios that increase paediatric vaccination coverage (VCR) to 25% and 50% were compared with the reference case for each market (Austria, Catalonia, Czechia, Romania, and Sweden). Outcomes included infections, hospitalisations, deaths, costs and quality-adjusted life years, capturing clinical and economic burden of seasonal influenza under current and alternative vaccination strategies.
RESULTS: Increasing paediatric LAIV coverage generated consistent benefits across all five countries/regions. Expanding VCR to 25-50% reduced overall infections by 34-48% and 57-71%, respectively, accompanied by marked declines in hospitalisations and mortality. While 40-78% of infections were prevented in the target group, 32-69% of influenza cases were prevented in adults due to LAIV expansion. Despite heterogeneity in demographics and baseline influenza burden, results were directionally consistent. LAIV expansion was cost‑effective across all scenarios and was dominant in two markets from a payer perspective and in most scenarios from a societal perspective. Owing to the substantial indirect effects of LAIV expansion, up to $8.6 in total savings (direct and indirect costs) per $1 invested could be achieved.
CONCLUSIONS: Increasing paediatric LAIV coverage substantially reduces influenza burden, with pronounced indirect protection in adults. Expanding childhood vaccination represents a high-impact, cost-effective strategy to improve population health and relieve pressure on healthcare systems.
METHODS: A compartmental dynamic transmission model simulated influenza circulation within a population over one year under current vaccination practices (inactivated influenza vaccine only; reference case). A linked decision tree translated symptomatic infections into clinical outcomes, healthcare resource use, and mortality. Scenarios that increase paediatric vaccination coverage (VCR) to 25% and 50% were compared with the reference case for each market (Austria, Catalonia, Czechia, Romania, and Sweden). Outcomes included infections, hospitalisations, deaths, costs and quality-adjusted life years, capturing clinical and economic burden of seasonal influenza under current and alternative vaccination strategies.
RESULTS: Increasing paediatric LAIV coverage generated consistent benefits across all five countries/regions. Expanding VCR to 25-50% reduced overall infections by 34-48% and 57-71%, respectively, accompanied by marked declines in hospitalisations and mortality. While 40-78% of infections were prevented in the target group, 32-69% of influenza cases were prevented in adults due to LAIV expansion. Despite heterogeneity in demographics and baseline influenza burden, results were directionally consistent. LAIV expansion was cost‑effective across all scenarios and was dominant in two markets from a payer perspective and in most scenarios from a societal perspective. Owing to the substantial indirect effects of LAIV expansion, up to $8.6 in total savings (direct and indirect costs) per $1 invested could be achieved.
CONCLUSIONS: Increasing paediatric LAIV coverage substantially reduces influenza burden, with pronounced indirect protection in adults. Expanding childhood vaccination represents a high-impact, cost-effective strategy to improve population health and relieve pressure on healthcare systems.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2026-11, ISPOR Europe 2026, Vienna, Austria
Value in Health, Volume 29, Issue 12S
Code
P8
Topic
Epidemiology & Public Health, Health Policy & Regulatory, Health Service Delivery & Process of Care
Topic Subcategory
Public Health
Disease
Pediatrics, Respiratory-Related Disorders (Allergy, Asthma, Smoking, Other Respiratory), Vaccines