PROJECTED INCIDENCE AND ECONOMIC BURDEN OF STROKE IN CHINA, 2022-2050
Author(s)
YUTONG JIANG, MS1, Lizheng Xu, PhD2, Mingsheng Chen, PhD1, Lei Si, PhD3.
1Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China, 2Shandong University, Jinan, China, 3Western Sydney University, Campbelltown, Australia.
1Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China, 2Shandong University, Jinan, China, 3Western Sydney University, Campbelltown, Australia.
OBJECTIVES: Stroke imposes a substantial and growing health and economic burden in China, but forward-looking estimates of stroke-related costs remain limited. This study projected annual stroke incidence and costs in China from 2022 to 2050 by stroke subtype, sex, and age group.
METHODS: Age- and sex-specific incidence rates for ischemic stroke (IS), intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) were projected using exponential growth models parameterized by average annual percent changes estimated from Global Burden of Disease 1990-2021 data. Projected incidence rates were combined with national population projections to estimate annual incident stroke cases. A decision-tree model estimated expected inpatient hospitalization costs per stroke case, incorporating index hospitalization, in-hospital death, and 1-year readmission. Direct medical and societal costs over 12 months after the index event were derived using literature-based multipliers. One-way sensitivity analyses assessed uncertainty in hospitalization, mortality, recurrence,readmission and incidence.
RESULTS: Annual incident strokes were projected to increase from 4.35 million in 2022 to 9.59 million in 2050. IS accounted for most growth, rising from 2.97 million to 7.89 million cases. Annual hospitalization costs were projected to nearly double from $46.1 billion to $91.2 billion, while direct medical costs increased from $67.6 billion to $133.9 billion and societal costs from $145.6 billion to $288.4 billion. By 2050, costs were increasingly concentrated among adults aged ≥65 years, especially those aged ≥85 years, and male costs were approximately 1.3 times female costs.
CONCLUSIONS: Stroke incidence and economic burden in China are projected to rise substantially through 2050, driven primarily by IS and population aging. These findings support targeted prevention, hospital capacity planning, and sustainable financing for acute and post-acute stroke care.
This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant number: 72174093, 72474109).
METHODS: Age- and sex-specific incidence rates for ischemic stroke (IS), intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) were projected using exponential growth models parameterized by average annual percent changes estimated from Global Burden of Disease 1990-2021 data. Projected incidence rates were combined with national population projections to estimate annual incident stroke cases. A decision-tree model estimated expected inpatient hospitalization costs per stroke case, incorporating index hospitalization, in-hospital death, and 1-year readmission. Direct medical and societal costs over 12 months after the index event were derived using literature-based multipliers. One-way sensitivity analyses assessed uncertainty in hospitalization, mortality, recurrence,readmission and incidence.
RESULTS: Annual incident strokes were projected to increase from 4.35 million in 2022 to 9.59 million in 2050. IS accounted for most growth, rising from 2.97 million to 7.89 million cases. Annual hospitalization costs were projected to nearly double from $46.1 billion to $91.2 billion, while direct medical costs increased from $67.6 billion to $133.9 billion and societal costs from $145.6 billion to $288.4 billion. By 2050, costs were increasingly concentrated among adults aged ≥65 years, especially those aged ≥85 years, and male costs were approximately 1.3 times female costs.
CONCLUSIONS: Stroke incidence and economic burden in China are projected to rise substantially through 2050, driven primarily by IS and population aging. These findings support targeted prevention, hospital capacity planning, and sustainable financing for acute and post-acute stroke care.
This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant number: 72174093, 72474109).
Conference/Value in Health Info
2026-09, ISPOR Asia Pacific 2026, Bangkok, Thailand
Value in Health, Volume 55, Issue S1
Code
EE79
Topic
Economic Evaluation
Topic Subcategory
Budget Impact Analysis, Cost/Cost of Illness/Resource Use Studies
Disease
SDC: Cardiovascular Disorders (including MI, Stroke, Circulatory), SDC: Neurological Disorders