SCENARIO-SPECIFIC VALUES OF STATISTICAL LIFE IN JAPAN: EVIDENCE FROM WILLINGNESS-TO-PAY ELICITATION FOR HEALTH, DISASTER, AND SAFETY RISKS
Author(s)
Shinya Tsuzuki, MD, PhD1, Taito Kitano, MD, DrPH2.
1Chief, Applied Epidemiology Division, Japan Institute for Health Security, Shinjuku-ku, Japan, 2Japan Institute for Health Security, Shinjuku-ku, Japan.
1Chief, Applied Epidemiology Division, Japan Institute for Health Security, Shinjuku-ku, Japan, 2Japan Institute for Health Security, Shinjuku-ku, Japan.
OBJECTIVES: The value of a statistical life (VSL) is widely used in cost-benefit analysis. However, whether a single VSL estimate is appropriate across heterogeneous policy contexts remains uncertain. The objective of the study is to estimate scenario-specific VSL in Japan using multiple mortality-risk contexts and elicitation methods, and to examine the implications for health policy and societal value assessment.
METHODS: We conducted an online survey in Japan in November 2025. Participants were assigned to either a free-text willingness-to-pay (WTP) group or a double-bounded dichotomous choice (DBDC) group. WTP was elicited for small reductions in mortality risk across four scenarios: traffic accident, cancer, new infectious disease, and great earthquake. VSL was calculated by dividing WTP by the corresponding absolute risk reduction. Scenario-specific VSL estimates were compared across elicitation methods.
RESULTS: Among 3,477 participants in the free-text group, median VSL estimates were 300 million JPY (interquartile range [IQR], 50-1,000) for traffic accidents, 3.3 million JPY (IQR, 0.7-6.7) for cancer, 300 million JPY (IQR, 50-1,000) for new infectious disease, and 1,667 million JPY (IQR, 333-3,333) for great earthquakes. Among 3,413 participants in the DBDC group, median VSL estimates were 204 million JPY (95% confidence interval [CI], 189-221) for traffic accidents, 1.9 million JPY (95% CI, 1.8-2.1) for cancer, 252 million JPY (95% CI, 234-272) for new infectious disease, and 990 million JPY (95% CI, 917-1,067) for great earthquakes. Although WTP was relatively stable across scenarios, VSL estimates varied substantially because of differences in the assumed absolute mortality-risk reductions.
CONCLUSIONS: VSL estimates in Japan differed markedly by policy scenario, even when elicited within the same survey population. These findings suggest that applying a single generic VSL may be inappropriate when evaluating various interventions. Context-specific VSL estimates may provide complementary evidence for societal-perspective economic evaluation and policy prioritization in Japan and other Asia-Pacific settings.
METHODS: We conducted an online survey in Japan in November 2025. Participants were assigned to either a free-text willingness-to-pay (WTP) group or a double-bounded dichotomous choice (DBDC) group. WTP was elicited for small reductions in mortality risk across four scenarios: traffic accident, cancer, new infectious disease, and great earthquake. VSL was calculated by dividing WTP by the corresponding absolute risk reduction. Scenario-specific VSL estimates were compared across elicitation methods.
RESULTS: Among 3,477 participants in the free-text group, median VSL estimates were 300 million JPY (interquartile range [IQR], 50-1,000) for traffic accidents, 3.3 million JPY (IQR, 0.7-6.7) for cancer, 300 million JPY (IQR, 50-1,000) for new infectious disease, and 1,667 million JPY (IQR, 333-3,333) for great earthquakes. Among 3,413 participants in the DBDC group, median VSL estimates were 204 million JPY (95% confidence interval [CI], 189-221) for traffic accidents, 1.9 million JPY (95% CI, 1.8-2.1) for cancer, 252 million JPY (95% CI, 234-272) for new infectious disease, and 990 million JPY (95% CI, 917-1,067) for great earthquakes. Although WTP was relatively stable across scenarios, VSL estimates varied substantially because of differences in the assumed absolute mortality-risk reductions.
CONCLUSIONS: VSL estimates in Japan differed markedly by policy scenario, even when elicited within the same survey population. These findings suggest that applying a single generic VSL may be inappropriate when evaluating various interventions. Context-specific VSL estimates may provide complementary evidence for societal-perspective economic evaluation and policy prioritization in Japan and other Asia-Pacific settings.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2026-09, ISPOR Asia Pacific 2026, Bangkok, Thailand
Value in Health, Volume 55, Issue S1
Code
HPR2
Topic
Health Policy & Regulatory
Topic Subcategory
Pricing Policy & Schemes
Disease
SDC: Infectious Disease (non-vaccine), SDC: Oncology