EVALUATING MONGOLIA’S SUGAR-SWEETENED BEVERAGE TAX: A COST-EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS
Author(s)
Nyamdavaa Byambadorj, PhD1, Undram MANDAKH, III, PhD, MD2, Kompal Sinha, PhD3.
1Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia, 2MONGOLIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF MEDICAL SCIENCES, ULAANBAATAR, Mongolia, 3Economics, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia.
1Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia, 2MONGOLIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF MEDICAL SCIENCES, ULAANBAATAR, Mongolia, 3Economics, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia.
OBJECTIVES: Mongolia has approved a 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) to be implemented in 2027, yet there is limited country-specific evidence on its health and economic impacts. SSB consumption is a key driver of obesity and non-communicable diseases (NCDs), placing pressure on healthcare systems. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of Mongolia’s planned SSB tax and provides policy-relevant evidence for Mongolia and comparable low- and middle-income countries.
METHODS: A Markov cohort model simulates the Mongolian adult population under two scenarios: a 20% ad valorem SSB tax and a no-tax baseline. Outcomes are projected over 10-year, 20-year, and lifetime horizons. Changes in SSB consumption are translated into body mass index, obesity, and NCD incidence. Health outcomes are measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. Healthcare costs are incorporated, and disease risks are informed by biomarker-based evidence.
RESULTS: Preliminary results suggest the tax could reduce consumption by approximately 31%. Over 10-year, 20-year, and lifetime horizons, the policy is estimated to avert 13, 260, and 2,255 deaths, and generate 2,899, 14,362, and 33,613 QALYs, respectively. Healthcare costs are projected to decrease by $1.98 million, $9.81 million, and $22.95 million. Compared to no tax, the policy appears both more effective and cost-saving.
CONCLUSIONS: Mongolia’s SSB tax is likely to generate substantial health gains and cost savings, suggesting it is a highly cost-effective policy. These findings support fiscal measures to reduce NCD burden and provide relevant evidence for similar settings.
METHODS: A Markov cohort model simulates the Mongolian adult population under two scenarios: a 20% ad valorem SSB tax and a no-tax baseline. Outcomes are projected over 10-year, 20-year, and lifetime horizons. Changes in SSB consumption are translated into body mass index, obesity, and NCD incidence. Health outcomes are measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. Healthcare costs are incorporated, and disease risks are informed by biomarker-based evidence.
RESULTS: Preliminary results suggest the tax could reduce consumption by approximately 31%. Over 10-year, 20-year, and lifetime horizons, the policy is estimated to avert 13, 260, and 2,255 deaths, and generate 2,899, 14,362, and 33,613 QALYs, respectively. Healthcare costs are projected to decrease by $1.98 million, $9.81 million, and $22.95 million. Compared to no tax, the policy appears both more effective and cost-saving.
CONCLUSIONS: Mongolia’s SSB tax is likely to generate substantial health gains and cost savings, suggesting it is a highly cost-effective policy. These findings support fiscal measures to reduce NCD burden and provide relevant evidence for similar settings.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2026-09, ISPOR Asia Pacific 2026, Bangkok, Thailand
Value in Health, Volume 55, Issue S1
Code
EE7
Topic
Economic Evaluation
Disease
SDC: Cardiovascular Disorders (including MI, Stroke, Circulatory), SDC: Diabetes/Endocrine/Metabolic Disorders (including obesity)