Cost-Effectiveness of Introducing Nuvaxovid to COVID-19 Vaccination in the United Kingdom: A Dynamic Transmission Model

Speaker(s)

Pritchard C1, Kutikova L2, Pitman R1, Lai K3, Beyhaghi H4, Gibbons I5, Erbe A6, Cosgrove C7, Sculpher M8, Salisbury D9
1ICON plc, Reading, Berkshire, UK, 2Novavax Europe, Zürich, ZH, Switzerland, 3ICON plc., Toronto, ON, Canada, 4Novavax, Inc., Gaithersburg, MD, USA, 5Novavax Europe, Reading, Berkshire, UK, 6RTI Health Solutions, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA, 7St. George's University Hospital, London, London, UK, 8University of York, York, North Yorkshire, UK, 9Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House, London, London, UK

Presentation Documents

OBJECTIVES: Nuvaxovid™, a recombinant protein vaccine adjuvanted with Matrix-M™, provides an alternative to the mRNA vaccines. The primary objective is to assess the cost-effectiveness of Nuvaxovid, compared with the mRNA vaccines, to inform decisions regarding vaccine deployment in the COVID-19 vaccination programme in the United Kingdom.

METHODS: A dynamic transmission model (DTM) was developed to simulate COVID-19 transmission and supplemented with a health economic analysis evaluating the costs and benefits of Nuvaxovid for at-risk groups aged 65+ and 18–64 with pre-conditions, recommended for vaccination in autumn 2023. Vaccines were assumed to be administered once annually, with mRNA vaccines and Nuvaxovid having equal price and, based on comparison from clinical trials, equivalent efficacy, with Nuvaxovid capturing 33.3% of the market. Model inputs were drawn from targeted literature review, clinical trials, meta-analyses, and publicly available COVID-19 surveillance data (2022–2024). The cost perspective was that of the National Health Service. Scenario and sensitivity analyses were conducted.

RESULTS: In the probabilistic base case, a diversified vaccine portfolio including Nuvaxovid was estimated to result in cost savings over a one-year time horizon of £1,309,863 and health gains of 376 QALYs compared with a strategy using mRNA vaccines only, and therefore dominating. Nuvaxovid demonstrates QALY advantages over mRNAs due to its improved tolerability; cost savings would be achieved through the elimination of freezer-related handling and monitoring. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, the portfolio strategy had a 73% probability of being cost-effective at a £20,000/QALY threshold. Results were consistent across different scenarios; however, due to unknown epidemiology and recommended population for autumn 2024, caution should be exercised when interpreting the model findings for 2024 and beyond.

CONCLUSIONS: Including Nuvaxovid in the COVID-19 vaccination programme could present a beneficial and cost-effective approach, diversifying available vaccines and improving public health outcomes amid ongoing COVID-19 transmission in the United Kingdom.

Code

EE106

Topic

Economic Evaluation, Epidemiology & Public Health, Health Policy & Regulatory, Study Approaches

Topic Subcategory

Cost-comparison, Effectiveness, Utility, Benefit Analysis, Decision Modeling & Simulation, Public Health, Public Spending & National Health Expenditures

Disease

Vaccines