HPV Vaccination Deficit AMONG Girls in Greece: Where We Are Now?

OBJECTIVES: The reduction in HPV vaccination coverage resulting from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic necessitated the implementation of a catch-up initiative, which was scheduled to end by December 2023. However, as the observed catch-up performance was modest and it was unlikely to timely meet the HPV deficit elimination, the catch-up period was extended until the end of 2024. Our latest analysis estimated that there is a low decreasing trend in the HPV vaccination deficit, from 5.9 to 5.4 months of 2019 vaccination between December 2022-December 2023 (Gountas et al. Eurogin 2024). This study aims to update the estimate of the HPV vaccination deficit and assess the progress of the running catch-up program.

METHODS: A published COVID-19 recovery tool was populated with local HPV vaccine sales data. Until 04/2022, when a gender-neutral vaccination was introduced, only girls were eligible for HPV vaccination, and thus the dose deficit was only attributed to them. To exclude boys’ contribution after introducing gender neutral vaccination three scenarios were examined: 45%, 50%, and 55% of the observed sales data were assumed to be attributed to girls. The accumulated deficit was expressed as a function of months of the last pre-pandemic year (e.g., 2019).

RESULTS: The accumulated deficit by June 2024 ranges between 3.4-4.9 months of 2019. Under current trends, HPV vaccination deficit is expected to be eliminate by October 2026. To clear the HPV deficit by May 2026 or end of 2025, yearly administered doses should be increased by 5% or 10%, respectively, compared to those of 2024.

CONCLUSIONS: Our estimates indicated that the HPV vaccination deficit in Greece is decreasing, although at a low rate. To make elimination of the HPV vaccine deficit a more realistic target and to prevent future HPV-related morbidity and mortality, it is necessary to expand the catch-up program until the end of 2026.