The Preventable Cost of Diabetes in the United Kingdom

OBJECTIVES: Diabetes is a chronic condition that incurs substantial costs on health systems. The increasing prevalence of diabetes means that costs will likely increase exponentially over the next few decades, with devastating effects on healthcare funding. This study reports on the increased costs, as well as the potential savings should there be a slowing down in the number of new cases.

METHODS: A recent study has reported that the annual cost of diabetes (including Type 1, Type 2 and gestational diabetes) in the United Kingdom is £10.7 billion, with an additional £3.3 billion indirect costs. We use current prevalence forecasts to estimate the future costs under a series of different assumptions for the change in prevalence rates. The estimates assume that there will be no changes to care management.

RESULTS: Using current forecast estimates, the total annual cost of diabetes is estimated to increase to £17.9 billion within fifteen years (an increase of 68%). If the rate of growth in prevalence could be reduced by just 1% (i.e. from 0.200% to 0.198%), then this would result in annual savings of £67.9 million by year 15. A 10% reduction in the growth of prevalence would results in savings of £678.7 million, whilst a 50% reduction in the growth of prevalence would save £3.4 billion annually.

CONCLUSIONS: Even very small changes in the annual increase in prevalence of diabetes can lead to substantial cost savings that can be reinvested in the health system. Larger reductions will have exponentially increased impact, potentially saving billions of pounds for the health system. This suggests that public health efforts to prevent diabetes should be prioritized in order to avoid devastating impacts on health system funding.