Analyzing the Effect of Meteorological Factors on Stroke Incidence: The Case of Hungary

OBJECTIVES: Cerebrovascular diseases are the leading cause of death and disability. The epidemiological background and predisposing factors have been the basis of many studies. We aimed to assess the effect of seasons and meteorological factors on stroke incidence in Hungary.

METHODS: We analysed county-level secondary data for 2018-2019. We identified stroke with ICD codes I60, I61, I62 (haemorrhagic), I63, I65, and I66 (ischaemic). Our data were obtained from the University of Pécs Clinical Centre (number of patients per day according to sex and disease subtype (N=1,765). Daily average and maximum wind speed [m/s], precipitation [mm], temperature [C°], frontal effect [warm/cold/mixed/no effect]) were provided by the Hungarian Meteorological Service. Data were analysed by descriptive statistical indicators, Mann-Whitney U, Kruskall-Wallis test, Spearman rank correlation, and regression analysis (p<0.05).

RESULTS: 89.92% of the patients were hospitalized for ischemic and 10.08% for haemorrhagic stroke. The incidence was broadly balanced between seasons, with a slightly higher incidence of stroke in men in autumn and winter (54.38% of cases in autumn and 56.23% in winter). In the summer, changes of barometric pressure can significantly increase the number of strokes, with an increase in air pressure increasing the likelihood of stroke occurrence. In autumn, an increase in temperature increases the incidence of stroke (r=0.210; p=0.004). Within this, the association is slightly stronger for ischaemic cases (r=0.225; p=0.002; female: r=0.148; p=0.046, male: r=0.163; p=0.028). In men, however, the risk of ischaemic stroke is increased by a fall in air pressure (r=-0.183; p=0.013).

CONCLUSIONS: Changes in temperature and frontal effects can increase the incidence of stroke. Modern forecasting technology can also help the health care system prepare for possible increased workloads during critical periods.