Trend of Mortality By Asthma in Colombia, 1998 - 2021

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to analyze trends of mortality by asthma in Colombia, 1998 - 2021

METHODS: Data on asthma-related mortality (ICD-10: J45-J46) from 1998 to 2021 and population projections were obtained from National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) in Colombia. Crude mortality rates (CMR) for asthma were estimated. Asthma mortality rates (AMR) per 100,000 people were estimated by sex and year. Trends of AMR were analyzed by Joinpoint regression (JPR) to determine inflection points for temporal analysis. Annual Percent Change (APC) and Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) were also estimated.

RESULTS: 8,920 asthma-related deaths were registered (55.0% in women). The annual mean of deaths during period was 372 (SD±162; 95%CI 307-436). For women and men, 204 (SD± 89; 95%CI 169-240) and 167 (SD±74; 95%CI 64-270), respectively. The annual mean of AMR was 0.88 (SD±0.45; 95%CI 0.70-1.06) per 100,000 people. For women and men, 0.95 (SD±0.48; 95%CI 0.75-1.14) and 0.80 per 100,000 people (SD±0.41; 95%CI 0.64-0.97) respectively. AMR decreased significantly during 1998-2021 [AAPC: -4,2(95%CI -4,8;-3,6)]; in men: -3,7(95%CI -4,7;-2,6) in women: -4,4(95%CI -5,6;-3,4). Three joinpoints resulting in four periods with varying APC in AMR were observed: 1998-2007: -5.7 (95%CI: -7.4 to -3.4); 2007-2012: -14.3 (95%CI: -20 to -8); 2012-2017: -3.7 (95%CI: -10.7 to 3.1) and 2017-2021: 13.4 (95% CI: 7.6 to 24.4). For men, the APCs were: [1998-2004: -3.9 (95% CI: -7.7 to -0.1); 2004-2016: -10.7 (95%CI: -17.3 to -9.3) and 2016-2021: 15.6 (95% CI: 8.7 to 26.9)]. For women, APCs were: [1998-2007: -5.9 (95% CI: -15 to 2.9); 2007-2012: -13.8 (95%CI: -21.4 to -4); 2012-2018: -2.3 (95%CI: -15.3 to 4.2) and 2018-2021: 14.2 (95%CI: 1.4 to 29.5)].

CONCLUSIONS: The trend of mortality due to asthma has decreased significantly during the study period. However, the AMR increased in the last 5 years of the observation window, especially in men.