Global Burden of Gout, 1990-2019: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

OBJECTIVES: The global burden in gout prevalence using the age, period, cohort model evaluate the effectiveness of the gout management in global regions.

METHODS: The data extraction was obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Using all-age prevalence (number) and age-standardized prevalence rate assessed the temporal trend in prevalence over the study period between 1990-2019 in 204 countries and territories. The age-period-cohort model is mainly used to analyze gout morbidity and mortality trends and predict future gout burden changes on 3 dimensions, including age, period, and cohort.

RESULTS: The global population increased in the past 20 years from 22 to 53 million. Regarding the age-standardized prevalence rate is from 532.99 to 652.24 per 10,000 globally, especially in high social demographic index quantiles. However, there were few countries having descending tendency throughout time trends. The prevalence is higher throughout the age increasing. In addition, the prevalence increases rapidly in high social demographic index quantiles for the period effect. Regarding the cohort effect, the gout prevalence increases steadily.

CONCLUSIONS: Gout is often treated with symptomatic management only. Our study showed managing gout would be a global health issue in the future. The government and the health authorities were suggested to prepare to combat gout as chronic disorder. They would be the leader and help the health system work together.