The Obesity Burden and Impact of Weight Loss on Saudi Public Payers Using Value of Weight Loss Simulation Model

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the impact of 10% weight loss using an adapted value of weight loss simulation model, in terms of both reduced complications and cost-savings from Saudi public payers perspective.

METHODS: We calculated the costs and complications associated with a 10% weight loss over a 10-year time horizon using an adapted simulation model. A systematic literature review was used to determine the model inputs. To create a synthetic Saudi cohort, we combined age, sex, obesity, and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) rates in Saudi Arabia based on United Kingdom (UK) cohorts. Weight loss was estimated through a Cox proportional hazard model by preventing 10 obesity-related outcomes. The domestic costs associated with these outcomes were estimated through a micro-costing approach. Cost-savings and savings associated with these outcomes were calculated.

RESULTS: Over 10-year, a 10% weight loss would lead to fewer complications and major cost-savings for public payers. The current yearly treatment cost for 5,976,744 Saudis with a body mass index +30 Kg/m² and ages 20-69 is 21.1 billion US$. In 10 years, the cost would increase to 34.5 billion US$ if all individuals kept their weight and calculated to reach 33.0 billion US$ if all individuals lost 10% weight, resulting in cumulative cost-saving of 1.53 billion US$ for year 10. The main savings were attributed to T2DM, hypertension, and dyslipidaemia, which accounted for the highest costs. Compared to the cost of losing 10% of one's body weight, saving 8.65 billion US$ would be achieved over the next 10-year.

CONCLUSIONS: A weight loss of 10% over 10-year will result in a cost-saving for Saudi public payers. 10% weight loss can lower T2DM, hypertension, and dyslipidemia costs. The findings may help policymakers to focus on the prevalence of obesity-related outcomes and strategies to implement weight loss programs in the country.