Evolution of Country Gross Domestic Product Following the COVID-19 Pandemic

OBJECTIVES:

To observe the evolution of country gross domestic product (GDP) following the COVID-19 pandemic and conduct a feasibility assessment to explore the link between COVID-19 vaccine coverage rate (VCR) and GDP.

METHODS:

Quarterly and yearly GDP growth were extracted from the OECD website. COVID-19 vaccine coverage rates were obtained from the CDC and ECDC websites. Country scope included the US, France, UK, Spain, Italy, and the UK. We used non-parametric Wilcoxon signed-rank tests to investigate significant variations in GDP during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020/22) compared to pre-COVID-19 years (2010-2019).

RESULTS:

Significant decreases in yearly GDP growth rates were observed in countries during the COVID-19 period compared to previous years: -1.22% (percentage point) in the US, -2.17% in France, -3.29% in the UK, -2.87% in Germany, and -1.83% across all OECD countries (all p<0.001). Non statistically significant decreases were observed in Spain and Italy with -4.21% (p=0.0654) and -1.77% (p=0.2158) respectively. Data points for quarterly GDP were insufficient at the time of the study to guarantee the necessary statistical power to explore any potential correlation with COVID-19 VCR.

CONCLUSIONS:

Our study highlights a drop in GDP following the pandemic. The results can be explained by some of the non-pharmaceutical measures taken by governments to reduce the transmission of the virus such as lockdowns and restrictions on air/maritime traffic. Our research included a feasibility assessment to study the link between COVID-19 VCR and GDP although not enough data points were available at the time of the study. However, we identified unemployment rate, composite leading indicator and business confidence index as secondary variables to consider in a future study. Exploring potential links between COVID-19 VCR and economic parameters such as GDP would be valuable and could be integrated in future vaccine modelling studies to further support the benefits of vaccination (in pandemic settings).