Estimates of the Global Burden of COVID-19 and the Value of Broad and Equitable Access to COVID-19 Vaccines

OBJECTIVES: The objectives are to produce a macro-level overview of the global COVID-19 burden and estimate the health and economic value of broad and equitable access to vaccines.

METHODS: A targeted literature review was conducted to collate evidence of the global COVID-19 burden on three outcomes: length of life; healthcare resource use and macroeconomic performance[1]. Linear modelling and secondary data analysis of additional modelling were used to estimate the health and economic effects of COVID-19 vaccines delivered in 2021, and the additional value which could have been achieved with broader and more equitable access.

RESULTS: The results of our literature show that, as of 1^st December 2020, there had been over 260 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and an estimated 17 million excess deaths. All country income groups experienced GDP growth significantly lower than predicted in 2020. Our model estimates that if all 92 countries eligible for COVAX Advance Market Committee access had reached 40% vaccination coverage in 2021, 120% more excess deaths would have been averted in 2021. For every 1 USD spent by advanced economies on vaccinations for less advanced economies they could expect to avoid 28 USD of economic losses in advanced economies and 29 USD in less advanced economies.

CONCLUSIONS: Broader and more equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines could have prevented more than twice as many deaths in 2021. The collective cost to high income countries when not all countries are vaccinated heavily outweighs the cost of manufacturing and distributing vaccines globally.

[1] COVID-19 has affected macroeconomic performance, which is usually defined in terms of gross domestic product or (GDP), for example due to sick individuals being unable to work or pandemic-related restrictions preventing economic activity.