Approximately 80% of cervical cancer cases occur in developing countries. In Thailand, cervical cancer has been the leading cancer in females, with an incidence of 24.7 cases per 100,000 individuals per year.
We constructed a decision model to simulate the lifetime economic impact for women in the context of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection prevention. HPV-related diseases were of interest: cervical cancer, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, and genital warts. The two strategies used were 1) current practice and 2) prophylactic quadrivalent vaccine against HPV types 6, 11, 16, and 18.
We developed a Markov simulation model to evaluate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of prophylactic HPV vaccine. Women transition through a model either healthy or developing HPV or its related diseases, or die from cervical cancer or from other causes according to transitional probabilities under the Thai health-care context. Costs from a provider perspective were obtained from King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital. Costs and benefits were discounted at 3% annually.
Compared with no prophylactic HPV vaccine, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was 160,649.50 baht per quality-adjusted life-year. The mortality rate was reduced by 54.8%. The incidence of cervical cancer, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 1, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2/3, and genital warts was reduced by up to 55.1%.
Compared with commonly accepted standard thresholds recommended by the World Health Organization Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, the nationwide coverage of HPV vaccination in girls is likely to be cost-effective in Thailand.