Medical innovation in developed countries has been linked to burden of disease, with more innovation in areas representing greater investment return. This study used horizon scanning or early awareness and alert activity as a novel measure of innovation to determine whether new and emerging health technologies reported by international horizon scanning agencies reflected diseases constituting the greatest burden.
This was a retrospective observational study of the 20 member agencies of EuroScan (the International Information Network on New and Emerging Health Technologies), representing 17 developed countries. Burden of disease was defined as disability-adjusted life-years, taken from the 2004 World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease estimates. This analysis focused on 102 specific diseases within 21 broader groups. Horizon scanning output was measured as the number of technologies reported by EuroScan member agencies between 2000 and 2009.
At best there was a weak association between innovation and burden of disease. An apparent high-level association was dependent on just three high-prevalence disease groups: malignant neoplasms, neuropsychiatric conditions, and cardiovascular disease. Disaggregating broader groups into specific diseases further weakened the association. Innovation is disproportionately strong in cancer and nonischemic heart disease and disproportionately weak in mental health.
Innovations reported by early awareness and alert systems do not always reflect conditions accounting for the highest morbidity and mortality. The results do not support previous reports of a positive relationship between burden of disease and innovation, but accord with evidence of notable discrepancies among key groups. Factors other than disease burden drive innovation.