According to several guidelines, the assessment of postmenopausal fracture risk should be based on clinical risk factors (CRFs) and bone density. Because measurement of bone density by dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is quite expensive, there has been increasing interest to estimate fracture risk by CRFs.
The aim of this study was to determine the cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis screening of CRFs with and without DXA compared with no screening in postmenopausal women in Germany.
A cost-utility analysis and a budget-impact analysis were performed from the perspective of the statutory health insurance. A Markov model simulated costs and benefits discounted at 3% over lifetime.
Cost-effectiveness of CRFs compared with no screening is €4607, €21,181, and €10,171 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) for 60-, 70-, and 80-year-old women, respectively. Cost-effectiveness of DXA plus CRFs compared with CRFs alone is €20,235 for 60-year-old women. In women above the age of 70, DXA plus CRFs dominates CRFs alone. DXA plus CRFs results in annual costs of €175 million, or 0.4% of the statutory health insurance's annual budget.
Funders should be careful in adopting a strategy based on CRFs alone instead of DXA plus CRFs. Only if DXA is not available, assessing CRFs only is an acceptable option in predicting a woman's risk of fracture.