Economic Evaluation of Influenza Pandemic Mitigation Strategies in the United States Using a Stochastic Microsimulation Transmission Model

Mar 1, 2009, 00:00 AM
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Section Order : 5
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To project the potential economic impact of pandemic influenza mitigation strategies from a societal perspective in the United States.


We use a stochastic agent-based model to simulate pandemic influenza in the community. We compare 17 strategies: targeted antiviral prophylaxis (TAP) alone and in combination with school closure as well as prevaccination.


In the absence of intervention, we predict a 50% attack rate with an economic impact of $187 per capita as loss to society. Full TAP (FTAP) is the most effective single strategy, reducing number of cases by 54% at the lowest cost to society ($127 per capita). Prevaccination reduces number of cases by 48% and is the second least costly alternative ($140 per capita). Adding school closure to FTAP or prevaccination further improves health outcomes but increases total cost to society by approximately $2700 per capita.


FTAP is an effective and cost-saving measure for mitigating pandemic influenza.
HEOR Topics :
  • Cost-comparison, Effectiveness, Utility, Benefit Analysis
  • Decision Modeling & Simulation
  • Economic Evaluation
  • Infectious Disease
  • Specific Diseases & Conditions
  • Study Approaches
Tags :
  • computer simulation
  • cost–benefit analysis
  • economics
  • human disease outbreaks
  • influenza
  • pharmaceutical models
  • theoretical
Regions :
  • North America