USING WHOLE DISEASE MODELLING TO INFORM ECONOMIC RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE DETECTION, DIAGNOSIS, TREATMENT AND FOLLOW-UP OF COLORECTAL CANCER

Author(s)

Tappenden P, Brennan A, Chilcott J, Squires HUniversity of Sheffield, Sheffield, South Yorkshire, United Kingdom

OBJECTIVES: Conventional economic evaluation typically involves piecewise comparisons of competing technologies at a single isolated point in a broader care pathway. This study assesses the value of simulating whole disease and treatment pathways to provide a common economic basis for informing resource allocation decisions across an entire disease service. This "Whole Disease Modelling" approach was applied to the evaluation of technologies for the detection, diagnosis, treatment and follow-up of colorectal cancer. METHODS: A patient-level simulation model was developed with the intention of informing NICE’s colorectal cancer clinical guideline. The model simulates disease and treatment pathways from preclinical disease through to detection, diagnosis, adjuvant treatment, follow-up, treatments for metastases and supportive care. The model was populated using randomised trials, observational studies, health utility studies, costing sources and expert opinion. Unobservable natural history parameters were calibrated against external data using Bayesian MCMC methods. Economic analysis was undertaken using 1) standard cost-utility decision rules within each topic, and 2) constrained optimisation across all modelled topics. RESULTS: The guideline included fifteen individual economic evaluation topics. Under usual processes, piecewise economic modelling would have been used to evaluate between one and three guideline topics. The Whole Disease Model provided a consistent platform for the economic evaluation of eleven of the fifteen guideline topics, ranging from alternative diagnostic technologies through to cytotoxic treatments for metastatic disease. The constrained optimisation analysis identified a configuration of colorectal services which was expected to maximise QALY gains without exceeding current expenditure levels. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that Whole Disease Modelling is feasible and can allow for the economic analysis of virtually any intervention across a disease service within a consistent conceptual and mathematical infrastructure. The approach may be especially valuable in instances whereby a substantial proportion of a disease service has not previously been subjected to economic evaluation.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2011-11, ISPOR Europe 2011, Madrid, Spain

Value in Health, Vol. 14, No. 7 (November 2011)

Code

PCN193

Topic

Economic Evaluation

Topic Subcategory

Cost/Cost of Illness/Resource Use Studies

Disease

Oncology

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