THE LONG-TERM COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF SEMAGLUTIDE FOR THE TREATMENT OF TYPE 2 DIABETES AND CHRONIC KIDNEY DISEASE IN THE UAE
Author(s)
Yusuf Korucu, MBA1, Basem Elbramawy, MBA2, Samuel Malkin, MSc3, Barnaby Hunt, MSc3.
1Novo Nordisk Saglik Urunleri Tic. Ltd. Sti., Istanbul, Turkey, 2Novo Nordisk Pharma Gulf FZE, Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 3Ossian Health Economics and Communications GmbH, Basel, Switzerland.
1Novo Nordisk Saglik Urunleri Tic. Ltd. Sti., Istanbul, Turkey, 2Novo Nordisk Pharma Gulf FZE, Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 3Ossian Health Economics and Communications GmbH, Basel, Switzerland.
OBJECTIVES: Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist semaglutide 1 mg has recently been associated with a reduced risk of clinically important kidney outcomes compared with placebo (both in addition to standard of care) in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the FLOW clinical trial. Based on outcomes from this trial, the present study aimed to evaluate the long-term cost-effectiveness of semaglutide 1 mg in the UAE.
METHODS: The PRIME T2D Model was used to project clinical and cost outcomes (symmetrically discounted at 3.0%) over patient lifetimes. Data from FLOW informed baseline cohort characteristics and changes in risk factors over the first 3 years of the analysis (matching the trial duration). After 3 years, no further changes were applied for any risk factors except estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), which followed the chronic slope in each arm estimated in FLOW. Patients were assumed to receive semaglutide or placebo plus standard of care for the duration of the analysis, with initiation of concomitant medications based on FLOW. Costs were expressed in 2024 Emirati Dirham (AED), accounted from a healthcare payer perspective.
RESULTS: Long-term projections indicated that semaglutide was associated with improvements in discounted life expectancy of 0.61 years, and discounted quality-adjusted life expectancy of 0.53 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), versus placebo. Clinical benefits were primarily due to a reduced incidence of kidney failure. Costs were AED 58,331 higher with semaglutide, with higher treatment costs partially offset by avoidance of diabetes-related complications (most notably kidney disease). Semaglutide was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of AED 110,512 per QALY gained versus placebo, below a willingness-to-pay threshold of AED 150,000 per QALY gained. Sensitivity analyses indicated results were robust.
CONCLUSIONS: Semaglutide 1 mg was projected to be a highly cost-effective treatment for people with T2D and CKD in the UAE.
METHODS: The PRIME T2D Model was used to project clinical and cost outcomes (symmetrically discounted at 3.0%) over patient lifetimes. Data from FLOW informed baseline cohort characteristics and changes in risk factors over the first 3 years of the analysis (matching the trial duration). After 3 years, no further changes were applied for any risk factors except estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), which followed the chronic slope in each arm estimated in FLOW. Patients were assumed to receive semaglutide or placebo plus standard of care for the duration of the analysis, with initiation of concomitant medications based on FLOW. Costs were expressed in 2024 Emirati Dirham (AED), accounted from a healthcare payer perspective.
RESULTS: Long-term projections indicated that semaglutide was associated with improvements in discounted life expectancy of 0.61 years, and discounted quality-adjusted life expectancy of 0.53 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), versus placebo. Clinical benefits were primarily due to a reduced incidence of kidney failure. Costs were AED 58,331 higher with semaglutide, with higher treatment costs partially offset by avoidance of diabetes-related complications (most notably kidney disease). Semaglutide was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of AED 110,512 per QALY gained versus placebo, below a willingness-to-pay threshold of AED 150,000 per QALY gained. Sensitivity analyses indicated results were robust.
CONCLUSIONS: Semaglutide 1 mg was projected to be a highly cost-effective treatment for people with T2D and CKD in the UAE.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2026-11, ISPOR Europe 2026, Vienna, Austria
Value in Health, Volume 29, Issue 12S
Code
EE335
Topic
Economic Evaluation
Disease
Diabetes/Endocrine/Metabolic Disorders (including obesity), Urinary/Kidney Disorders