Treatment With Semaglutide Reduces the Complication Costs Among Type 2 Diabetes Patients With CKD in China: A Short-Term Cost Analysis Based on the FLOW Trial
Author(s)
Ying Chen, MSc1, Hao Zhang, MSc2, Ruan Zhen, PhD2, Jyothi Menon, MSc, PhD3, Juliette Cattin, MSc4, Samuel Malkin, MSc4, Barnaby Hunt, MSc4, Bing Wu, PhD1.
1Pharmacy, Shanghai Chest Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China, 2Novo Nordisk, Beijing, China, 3Novo Nordisk A/S, Copenhagen, Denmark, 4Ossian Health Economics and Communications GmbH, Basel, Switzerland.
1Pharmacy, Shanghai Chest Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China, 2Novo Nordisk, Beijing, China, 3Novo Nordisk A/S, Copenhagen, Denmark, 4Ossian Health Economics and Communications GmbH, Basel, Switzerland.
OBJECTIVES: The FLOW trial demonstrated that semaglutide is associated with decreased risks of major kidney disease events and cardiovascular outcomes in type 2 diabetes patients with chronic kidney disease (T2DM-CKD). This study aimed to estimate the economic impact of semaglutide versus placebo in reducing complication costs in Chinese T2DM-CKD patients.
METHODS: An economic model comparing the costs of complication treatment with semaglutide and placebo was developed based on events observed in FLOW, over a time horizon of 1-5 years. Baseline complications and subsequent incidence rates, including myocardial infarction, stroke, kidney failure, and major adverse limb event, were sourced from FLOW. Annual costs of each complication in the onset year and the following years were sourced from Chinese published literature and adjusted to the 2024 Chinese Yuan(CNY). Outcomes were discounted by 0% in the base-case analysis and 4.5% in a sensitivity analysis.
RESULTS: Compared with placebo, semaglutide was associated with reduced complication costs for the majority of the complications among T2DM-CKD patients. For base case, cumulative complication cost savings using semaglutide were CNY 1256, CNY 2712, CNY 4750, CNY 7269, and CNY 10175 over the time horizon of 1,2,3,4,5 years, respectively. The main contributor to these cost savings is due to a reduction in costs associated with renal failure (approximately 75%-80% reduction across 1-5 years). Moreover, savings in complication cost increased each year with semaglutide treatment over time, reaching CNY 2907 in year 5. Cumulative cost savings for each year from year 1 to year 5 were CNY 1256, CNY 2649, CNY 4516, CNY 6723, and CNY 9160, respectively, in the sensitivity analysis.
CONCLUSIONS: Semaglutide was projected to substantially reduce complication-related costs in Chinese T2DM-CKD patients compared with placebo, showcasing its economic value alongside clinical benefits. These findings provide supportive evidence for healthcare decision-making among T2DM patients in China.
METHODS: An economic model comparing the costs of complication treatment with semaglutide and placebo was developed based on events observed in FLOW, over a time horizon of 1-5 years. Baseline complications and subsequent incidence rates, including myocardial infarction, stroke, kidney failure, and major adverse limb event, were sourced from FLOW. Annual costs of each complication in the onset year and the following years were sourced from Chinese published literature and adjusted to the 2024 Chinese Yuan(CNY). Outcomes were discounted by 0% in the base-case analysis and 4.5% in a sensitivity analysis.
RESULTS: Compared with placebo, semaglutide was associated with reduced complication costs for the majority of the complications among T2DM-CKD patients. For base case, cumulative complication cost savings using semaglutide were CNY 1256, CNY 2712, CNY 4750, CNY 7269, and CNY 10175 over the time horizon of 1,2,3,4,5 years, respectively. The main contributor to these cost savings is due to a reduction in costs associated with renal failure (approximately 75%-80% reduction across 1-5 years). Moreover, savings in complication cost increased each year with semaglutide treatment over time, reaching CNY 2907 in year 5. Cumulative cost savings for each year from year 1 to year 5 were CNY 1256, CNY 2649, CNY 4516, CNY 6723, and CNY 9160, respectively, in the sensitivity analysis.
CONCLUSIONS: Semaglutide was projected to substantially reduce complication-related costs in Chinese T2DM-CKD patients compared with placebo, showcasing its economic value alongside clinical benefits. These findings provide supportive evidence for healthcare decision-making among T2DM patients in China.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2025-11, ISPOR Europe 2025, Glasgow, Scotland
Value in Health, Volume 28, Issue S2
Code
EE738
Topic
Economic Evaluation
Topic Subcategory
Cost/Cost of Illness/Resource Use Studies
Disease
Diabetes/Endocrine/Metabolic Disorders (including obesity), Urinary/Kidney Disorders