Global, Regional, and National Burdens of Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Adolescents from 1990 to 2021, with Forecasts to 2030: A Systematic Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Moderator
Luying Zhang, PhD, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
Speakers
Xing Chen, Fudan university, Shanghai, China; Wen Chen, PhD, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to estimate the burden of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in adolescents from 1990 to 2021, and to predict diabetes prevalence through 2030.
METHODS: Age-standardized rate (per 100,000) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated based on the world standard population reported in GBD 2019. The association between disease burden and the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) were analyzed via Pearson linear correlation. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict diabetes prevalence in adolescents.
RESULTS: In 2021, 3.4 million adolescents were living with T1DM, with age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of 180.96 (95% CI 180.77-181.15), and 14.6 million were living with T2DM, with ASPR of 1190.73 (1190.13-1191.34). As SDI levels rise, ASPR of T1DM increases (r=0.44, p<0.01), and ASPR of T2DM decreases (r=-0.18, p<0.01). Compared with males, females had a greater ASPR of T1DM (185.49 [185.21-185.76] vs. 176.66 [176.39-176.92]), whereas males had a greater ASPR of T2DM than females did (1241.45 [1240.58-1242.31] vs. 1138.24 [ 1137.40-1139.09]). A negative correlation between SDI level and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) for both T1DM (r = -0.51, p<0.01) and T2DM (r= -0.62, p<0.01). For T2DM patients, 32.84% of DALYs were attributed to high BMI, which increased by 40.78% during the study period. From 1990 to 2021, ASPR of T1DM increased by 19.53% (19.50-19.56), ASDR decreased by 6.69% (6.67-6.70), and ASPR and ASDR for T2DM increased by 118.19% (118.12-118.26) and 76.78% (76.94-76.63), respectively. By 2030, 3.7 million people are projected to have T1DM, and 14.6 million to have T2DM.
CONCLUSIONS: Among adolescents, the burden of T1DM and T2DM is increasing and varies by region, sex and SDI. Therefore, targeted interventions based on regional features are needed to prevent and control adolescent diabetes. Moreover, more efforts are needed to control climate change and obesity to reduce the adolescent diabetes burden.
METHODS: Age-standardized rate (per 100,000) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated based on the world standard population reported in GBD 2019. The association between disease burden and the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) were analyzed via Pearson linear correlation. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict diabetes prevalence in adolescents.
RESULTS: In 2021, 3.4 million adolescents were living with T1DM, with age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of 180.96 (95% CI 180.77-181.15), and 14.6 million were living with T2DM, with ASPR of 1190.73 (1190.13-1191.34). As SDI levels rise, ASPR of T1DM increases (r=0.44, p<0.01), and ASPR of T2DM decreases (r=-0.18, p<0.01). Compared with males, females had a greater ASPR of T1DM (185.49 [185.21-185.76] vs. 176.66 [176.39-176.92]), whereas males had a greater ASPR of T2DM than females did (1241.45 [1240.58-1242.31] vs. 1138.24 [ 1137.40-1139.09]). A negative correlation between SDI level and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) for both T1DM (r = -0.51, p<0.01) and T2DM (r= -0.62, p<0.01). For T2DM patients, 32.84% of DALYs were attributed to high BMI, which increased by 40.78% during the study period. From 1990 to 2021, ASPR of T1DM increased by 19.53% (19.50-19.56), ASDR decreased by 6.69% (6.67-6.70), and ASPR and ASDR for T2DM increased by 118.19% (118.12-118.26) and 76.78% (76.94-76.63), respectively. By 2030, 3.7 million people are projected to have T1DM, and 14.6 million to have T2DM.
CONCLUSIONS: Among adolescents, the burden of T1DM and T2DM is increasing and varies by region, sex and SDI. Therefore, targeted interventions based on regional features are needed to prevent and control adolescent diabetes. Moreover, more efforts are needed to control climate change and obesity to reduce the adolescent diabetes burden.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2025-05, ISPOR 2025, Montréal, Quebec, CA
Value in Health, Volume 28, Issue S1
Code
EPH36
Topic
Epidemiology & Public Health
Disease
No Additional Disease & Conditions/Specialized Treatment Areas, SDC: Diabetes/Endocrine/Metabolic Disorders (including obesity)