DRAFT Model Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force-6 (Submitted to Value in Health and Medical Decision Making)
This paper will present methods for assessing and reporting parameter estimation (including calibration) and uncertainty in models. In addition to uni-or muli-variate sensitivity analyses, the correlation of input variables will be addressed. In this paper, the use of Bayesian approaches to integrate prior knowledge will be discussed.
Working Group Chair (Lead author):
Andrew Briggs, DPhil, William R. Lindsay Chair of Health Economics, Health Economics & Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Health & Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland UK
Working Group Members (Co-authors):
Elizabeth Fenwick PhD, MSc, Lecturer in Health Economics, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom
Jonathon Karnon PhD, Professor in Health Economics, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia
A. David Paltiel PhD, Professor and Acting Division Head, Yale University, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
Mark Sculpher PhD, MSc, Professor, University of York, Heslington, York, England, United Kingdom
Milton Weinstein PhD, Professor Health Policy & Management, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA USA
For more information on the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force (Leadership, Goal, Background / Overview, Timeline) please refer to the following page: http://www.ispor.org/TaskForces/GRPModelingTf.asp
For further recommendations on modeling good research practices, please refer to the following reports:
Activity: |
Deadline: |
Define papers to be included in this Task Force Report, suggested lead authors, and additional members |
May 6, 2010 |
| Identify authors for each paper included in the Task Force Report |
May 15, 2010 |
| Develop consensus on the content of each paper and a draft detailed outline of each paper |
August 1, 2010 |
| Finalize detailed outline of each paper & assign sections of each paper to Task Force member volunteers |
September 15, 2010 |
| First draft of each paper completed |
October 15, 2010 |
| Overview of papers presented at ISPOR Forum at 13th Annual European Congress (Prague) for comment |
November 8, 2010 |
| Second draft of papers prepared and face-to-face meeting to discuss contentious issues |
March 2011 |
Draft papers submitted to Review Group for comments |
May 12, 2011 |
Draft papers presented during Third Plenary Session at ISPOR 16th Annual International Meeting (Baltimore) for comment |
May 25, 2011 |
Draft papers submitted to ISPOR membership for comments |
July 2011 |
Draft papers revised based on comments |
October 2011 |
Papers submitted to Value in Health and Medical Decision Making |
March 2012 |
ISPOR
Good Research Practices Index | ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force