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Model Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Working Group

DRAFT Model Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force-6 (Submitted to Value in Health and Medical Decision Making)

This paper will present methods for assessing and reporting parameter estimation (including calibration) and uncertainty in models. In addition to uni-or muli-variate sensitivity analyses, the correlation of input variables will be addressed. In this paper, the use of Bayesian approaches to integrate prior knowledge will be discussed.


Working Group Chair (Lead author):
Andrew Briggs, DPhil, William R. Lindsay Chair of Health Economics, Health Economics & Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Health & Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland UK

Working Group Members (Co-authors):
Elizabeth Fenwick PhD, MSc, Lecturer in Health Economics, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom
Jonathon Karnon PhD, Professor in Health Economics, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia
A. David Paltiel PhD, Professor and Acting Division Head, Yale University, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
Mark Sculpher PhD, MSc, Professor, University of York, Heslington, York, England, United Kingdom
Milton Weinstein PhD, Professor Health Policy & Management, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA USA

For more information on the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force (Leadership, Goal, Background / Overview, Timeline) please refer to the following page: http://www.ispor.org/TaskForces/GRPModelingTf.asp

For further recommendations on modeling good research practices, please refer to the following reports:

Activity:

Deadline:

Define papers to be included in this Task Force Report, suggested lead authors, and additional members

May 6, 2010

Identify authors for each paper included in the Task Force Report

May 15, 2010

Develop consensus on the content of each paper and a draft detailed outline of each paper

August 1, 2010

Finalize detailed outline of each paper & assign sections of each paper to Task Force member volunteers

September 15, 2010

First draft of each paper completed

October 15, 2010

Overview of papers presented at ISPOR Forum at 13th Annual European Congress (Prague) for comment

November 8, 2010

Second draft of papers prepared and face-to-face meeting to discuss contentious issues

March 2011

Draft papers submitted to Review Group for comments

May 12, 2011

Draft papers presented during Third Plenary Session at ISPOR 16th Annual International Meeting (Baltimore) for comment

May 25, 2011

Draft papers submitted to ISPOR membership for comments

July 2011

Draft papers revised based on comments

October 2011

Papers submitted to Value in Health and Medical Decision Making

March 2012


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